This is well done.
Just Wait! Who's predicting now?
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=68250
Postby Pops » Wed 22 May 2013, 18:21:08
It dawns on me that Peakers are no longer the one's saying
"Just wait!"
Once upon a time the idea of peak oil was all speculation.
Around here it was a crystal ball prediction with a bunch of charts put
together to show that some time in the future the easily extracted oil would
become scarce and the world would need to turn to harder and more expensive
sources. Then, went the prediction, production would not only stop increasing
no matter how high the price but would eventually begin to fall. "Just
wait" cried the Peak Oilers.
But those who believe desire creates resources said peak oil
prediction was as old as oil production itself and that the day oil production
can no longer grow would never come. Just look at the facts they said,
production always increases, prices always fall, newer, easier oil is always
found. PO Doom is just "fate" and Peakers have no faith that humans
can cheat the inevitable, like the old saw: "The Stone Age didn't end for
lack of stones."
But now, that whole situation has been turned on it's head.
Now the basic events predicted by Peakers; stalled global production growth,
even in the face of high prices, is the reality and no longer in the realm of
speculation or "fear mongering". Now it's the cornucopians forced to
say a return to the good old days of oil abundance is just around the corner;
"Just Wait!" say the frackers.
The old argument against peak oil was, "Look, oil
production is increasing". Now production of actual oil has been treading
water for going on 8 years even at the highest average prices since oil
production began. The only way to continue the illusion of increasing
production has been to change the definition of oil to include stuff never
counted as oil previously and even to quit calling it oil altogether. Now the
stock line is "Look, All Liquids are increasing!" I guess the new saw
will be the Oil Age didn't end for lack of oil, it was replaced with
"Liquids".
But back out all the things counted in All Liquids that
aren't oil and the reason to stop calling them "oil" becomes clear.
Counting biofuels as oil for example double counts the oil used to make them,
once when oil is produced and then again when the biofuels are produced using
oil.
Then there is Refinery Gain, which aren't really gains at
all in energy terms, the are simply volume increases that happen as oil is
split into various finished products, it isn't an increase of energy and in
fact it also ignores the energy used to split oil into finished product.
The biggest non-oil counted in All Liquids is "natural
gas plant liquids" which counts things that never were counted as oil
until true oil production ceased growing. They were never a part of the crude
oil stream to begin with and for the most part never go into the crude oil
stream now. And in any event, they contain significantly less energy than oil
by volume so counting them as oil equivalent on a volume basis is like counting
the buzz in Budweiser as equivalent to Wild Turkey on a volume basis.
So now that peak oil is all but in the history books (except
for some shale bound oil that was not profitable until the plateau) we are in
the funny situation that it's no longer Peak Oil that is the unbelievable
forecast but the idea that somehow all the overcooked, undercooked, deep,
arctic, extra heavy, tight, etc, etc, will be able to provide not only the same
flow rate and net energy to replace the old continuous pressurized reservoirs
but that they will continue growing forever more! The funnier part is that even
after 7 or 8 years 80% of all tight oil in the world comes from just 2 fields
and the CEO of one of the biggest frackers said the growth rate has already
peaked.
But we see press releases, OilCo financed papers from
prestigious institutions and ad campaigns all touting the new oil that is going
to make America the next Saudi Arabia (if we can manage to cut our use in
half). People here post every imaginable excuse and convoluted bit of logic
trying to convince someone that they shouldn't believe their lying eyes, that
the economy is in great shape, that oil prices are (variously) not that high or
not a record or not a problem for consumers or if they are high it's because of
[insert whatever non-supply-related excuse] and that the oil is (variously)
perfectly matched to demand, no longer required to operate the economy, and
above all that tight oil production is set to explode, any minute now.
"Just Wait!" they holler, frantically attaching
wheels to the goalposts, "The good old days will be right back!"
