Friday, April 25, 2014

“In Defence of Inaction”


I think Dave Pollard sees it very well.
“In Defence of Inaction” by Dave Pollard

I have, of late, had a falling out with many of my fellow
'progressives', similar I suppose to that of Paul Kingsnorth, who is
being savaged  <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/magazine/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-he-feels-fine.html> by Naomi Klein and others for giving up on the environmental movement and non-local activism, and by humanists for losing faith in our species' capacity for innovation and change.

I should say at the outset that I agree that our political and economic
and legal and educational and social systems are dreadful, unfair,
teetering, and totally inadequate to our needs. I agree that this is a
world of horrific inequality, inequitable and unjust privilege, massive
suffering, and outrageous patriarchy. I agree that corporatism and
corruption and propagandist media are rampant and destructive and
destabilizing. I agree that militarized police and torture prisons and
drone killing and massive global surveillance are repugnant and a
fundamental threat to our personal safety and security and the very
principles upon which our nations are founded.

And I fully acknowledge that the fact I'm white, male, boomer generation
and relatively wealthy provides me with enormous privilege compared to
others, including relative freedom of movement, freedom from fear of
harrassment and assault, and greater social, political and economic
opportunity.

But when I hear arguments that "we need" to stand up for our 'inherent'
rights and freedoms, and wrest 'control' of the levers of power from the
obscenely wealthy elite, and denounce and protest injustice and
inequality, and acknowledge and renounce our role as privileged
oppressors, as the first steps to a true social revolution in and
political and economic reform, leading, somehow, to a radical
redistribution of wealth and power, and a more just society, I am
reduced to despair.

I used to believe people, and perhaps some other creatures, had 'rights'
and 'freedoms'. I believed that someone was in control. I believed there
were answers to the predicaments we face.

But now I realize that there are no rights or freedoms. The concept of
rights and freedoms is a sop that the rich and powerful of this world
use to appease the fury and frustration of the poor and disenfranchised.
The 'granting' of rights and freedoms means nothing, because they can be and are taken away whenever those in power choose to do so, and are
simply ignored when they interfere with the exercise of power or
accumulation of wealth by those who allowed them to be granted.

We don't have freedom of expression, or speech, or assembly: Under the
current surveillance state I can be stopped, arrested, held indefinitely
and incommunicado, tortured, 'disappeared' or simply killed, by a drone
or in a secret gulag, whenever someone in power decides I'm a threat to
that power.

Likewise, there is no 'upward mobility' for just about any demographic
segment of our human population worldwide; most people are trapped,
socially and economically, right where they are, no matter what may
happen to the place where they live.

There is no true democracy, anywhere: the real decisions are made in
secret meetings between bought politicians (many of them in power
fraudulently or due to gerrymandering and other corruptions of the
'democratic' process), who represent only their rich and powerful
donors, and the bankers, lawyers and corporate executives. The 'laws'
and 'regulations' are just smokescreens to make it look as if the
people's interests are being considered.

There are no rights of recourse against corporate abuses: most
industries are oligopolies, and corporate law is designed to protect
them and their wealthy shareholders and executives from the wrath of
outraged citizens, while enabling these corporations to sue citizens who
pose any threat to their profits or 'leadership'.

All that's happened over the past three decades is that the illusion of
rights and freedoms has largely disappeared, as those with wealth and
power ratchet up the rhetoric that militarized police, torture prisons,
ubiquitous surveillance and the oppression of dissent are 'necessary'
for public safety and security (especially the safety and security of
the rich and powerful).

There are no rights or freedoms. There is only power, and its exercise
in the interest of further enriching the rich and further concentrating
power.

I used to be outraged and angry about all this, but now I'm just letting
it go. It's just too easy to see this as a moral struggle, as a fight
against pathology, greed, and tyranny. I don't think it's that simple. I
think everyone's really trying to do what they believe is best, not only
for their loved ones but for everyone. I know some of these people, and
their stubborn, destructive wrong-headedness is completely
understandable to me (from their strange but deeply-held worldview).

Increasing concentration of power doesn't mean is that there is an
'elite' in control of everything in our society. Vast wealth and power
does not translate to control, especially in a world where all our
systems are collapsing simultaneously: our economic systems, running on the fumes of belief in perpetual industrial growth; our nearly-exhausted energy and resource systems, utterly dependent on ample and cheap oil (one barrel of oil replaces /12 person-years/ of labour, and we
currently use /100 million barrels/ per day); and our climate systems,
which have long passed the tipping point to catastrophic change
comparable to that of the 'ice ages' (though in the opposite temperature
direction).

The rich and powerful are as much prisoners of these massive, complex,
crumbling systems, as much cogs in the machine, as the rest of us: they
just get better wages and benefits than the rest of the inmates, and
will until the systems fall apart, at which time they'll be no better
off than anyone else.

No one is in control. The enemy, if there is one, is not a cabal of
elites, but a set of co-dependent collapsing systems that every one of
us has a vested interest in trying (insanely) to perpetuate. Systems we
have all helped co-create and are almost all dependent on.

David Korowicz, in his study On the Cusp of Collapse
explains how our massively complex global human systems are far beyond the control of any coordinated group of people:

Our daily lives are dependent upon the coherence of thousands of direct
interactions, which are themselves dependent upon trillions more
interactions between things, businesses, institutions and individuals
across the world. Following just one track; each morning I have coffee
near where I work. The woman who serves me need not know who picked the berries, who moulded the polymer for the coffee maker, how the municipal system delivered the water to the cafĂ©, how the beans made their journey  or who designed the mug. The captain of the ship that transported the beans would have had no knowledge of who provided the export credit insurance for the shipment, who made the steel for the hull, or the steps in the complex processes that allow him the use of satellite navigation. And the steel-maker need not have known who built the pumps for the iron-ore mine, or how the oxygen for the furnace was refined.

We cannot hope to 'fix' these systems through political or economic or
legal or educational reform, or putting some more democratically-minded group 'in control' of them. Fighting for possession of the steering
wheel of a car careering over a cliff cannot produce useful change. Even
trying to bring down our economic systems before they do even more
damage is probably futile: It's unlikely to significantly accelerate,
mitigate or delay the inevitable collapse, and I'm not sure its effect
on catastrophic climate change would be substantial either. There is
simply no point trying to change any of these systems; it's a waste of
time, and, as Buddha said "Our problem is we think we have time." But
some would insist we try anyway, so at least "we can say we tried". I
think that's a pathetic argument.

So here we sit, all of us, rich and poor, powerful and powerless, with
no real 'rights' or 'freedoms', no hope of 'reforming' massive,
self-reinforcing and entrenched systems utterly out of our control,
coming apart because they are totally unsustainable, and no credible
knowledge of what might work to even mitigate the imminent and
catastrophic end of the industrial 'growth' economy, the end of the
all-too-brief age of abundant cheap energy, and the end of a short few
millennia of astonishingly stable climate.

The question we must each ask ourselves, I think, is this: /If we
acknowledge that our systems and hence our civilization cannot be
reformed or 'saved', what can we do now that will make a real
difference, for the future, in our communities and for those we love?/

The insanely rational answer to this question, I think, is (a) probably
nothing, and (b) it's too early to know.

So if I seem impatient or annoyed when you ask me to be outraged or
supportive in your movement to reform civilization, I'm sorry. I think
it's too late.

I'm in the process of writing a book of stories of how all of this might
play out, just one scenario, the story of, in the short term, a Great
Migration of billions of people towards the poles in search of livable
habitat (what an amazing, terrifying and liberating journey that could
be!), and, in the longer term, the blossoming of thousands of local
communities, new and unimaginably diverse, self-sufficient, joyful and
utterly alive human cultures, whose total impact on the planet will be,
due to our much smaller numbers and minimal energy and technology
resources, pretty insignificant. I need to write such a new story to be
able to begin to let go of the old, civilized one.

Maybe that's not enough. Maybe there's more I could (I've stopped saying "should") be doing: learning new essential skills and capacities,
helping in the process of rediscovering how to build and live in
community together, healing myself and helping others heal from the
ravages of civilization's innumerable, constant and monstrous stresses,
and just trying to live a joyful, exemplary, modest and graceful life. I
may get around to these things. But for now I'm just writing, watching,
reflecting, trying to figure it all out.

It's too early and too late, I think, to do anything more.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Resolve


I have been trying to understand the inaction worldwide to the convergence of various issues facing humanity and the earth today – population overshoot, clean water shortage, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, mining the last dregs of oil and natural gas, ocean acidification, ocean rising, species extinction, massive environmental degradation of life support systems, soil denaturing and loss, inequality, continual war to name a few important ones.

The quick and dirty.  There are no viable solutions unless everyone, I mean everyone, reduces their energy consumption, non-fuel mineral use, birthrate and pollution of air, water and soil.  This ain’t gonna happen!

We will do anything and everything to maintain our present personal level of energy use and the comfort it affords us.  We will do anything and everything to the earth, to other people and even to ourselves to continue on this path.   And if we don’t have the energy level we see others have, we will do anything and everything to the earth, to other people and even to ourselves to attain that level.  The proof of this assertion is simple; we are doing it.
From: The Curmudgeon Report


**********************************************************************
Many parents work hard to assure their children’s future.  Many if asked would give their lives for their children and grandchildren. If a culture/society is at threat from outside forces, starvation or environmental stress, this support for the next generations falls by the wayside.  However, in general, mothers, fathers and grandparents will protect the future of their offspring.

We are surrounded by a litany of threats to the future - fracking, deep ocean drilling, tar sands; pollution from mountain top removal, destruction of natural resources, dying oceans, climate disasters of epic proportions, dangers of genetic engineering; corporate control, and population overshoot to name a few of the less subtle. Some would have more technology to combat these problems or at best forestall them.
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein

For citizens of developed nations, this is about lifestyle – energy and other resource consumption – will we change our lifestyle for the children and grandchildren’s future?  NO.

And now for a rousing chorus of “Yes, but” from all the morally and ethically indignant.  .  .
There is no legitimate “Yes, but .  .  . 
You can’t get there (wherever there is) from here!



If we don’t do this equitably globally, there will be riots and revolts.  Oh, we aren’t even beginning to do it equitably.  Oh, there are riots and revolts. 


This from a friend:  I asked her how she handles her impact of the earth.  This is a person who has lived off the grid for decades. She is a major and very knowledgeable gardener.  Makes maple syrup, cans, splits wood, and has done this for decades. She is an amazingly capable person and is wonderfully honest and sincere.

Hi John, to try to answer your question.....I can't and don't want to live a life in a "cave". To totally disconnect from society, which is pretty much what you would have to do to live without any use of fossil fuels, is something I wouldn't be able to do. To give up driving, never seeing some of my children or grandchildren is not something I'm willing to do. Do I realize I am contributing to greenhouse gas when I drive or God forbid, fly? Yes. How do I wrap my head around that fact that I am not fixing the world? That I am adding to the problems of the world? I try to make good decision when I use resources. Example, I don't go to town for just one thing....usually. Try to combine chores. I feel good that I have renewable energy on our house...sure it took mining to get the products to create the panels but what is the alternative?.....coal fire power plant for my lights (and etc etc) or sit in a cave? I guess I'm choosing the lesser of two evils. I'm far from being perfect! but I feel the work I've done, and the life style I've chosen to live is respectable. I hope it has done some good...some where or for someone. I try to give back more than I take.....but that is very debatable if scrutinized carefully. I guess I'm saying I'm doing the best I can with the talents I have. And when the hammer comes down???? I guess I'll play it by ear. And be on the team that tries to help others and carry on/survive/ remake a life....and not be on the marauders team. Almost everything we do involves fossil fuels. I'm going to the eye doctor tomorrow....burn gas to get there...she'll exam my eyes with equipment that took fossil fuels to make. I'll probably have to get new glasses that took fossil fuels to make. Not to mention the education the doctor got....all the resources involved in that.... But what is the alternative?...stumble through life? Not be a very full functioning person?  Like I said before doing the best I can...trying not to be too lazy, too blinded, too indifferent. Not really denial....not really who gives a f--- but....       Marcia

From me.
Marcia - I would have answer with similar reasons.  I would add:
1. I enjoy the power that my world affords me.  I know it makes me at the top of the heap energywise.  I know it entails a certain sense of privilege.  
2.  I enjoy the comfort my world affords me.  Even when I lived off-off-the grid, I was still floating on top of a sea and bed of fossil fuels that made it possible.  I wasn't initially aware of that but it slowly dawned on me.
3. I enjoy preparing for the eventuality of climate and peak change.  I know deep in my gut that it won't be pleasant and know that there is not a damn thing I can do to change it.  And there never was, it is the nature of the beast (life that is) see: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/05/we-are-here.html
4. I have had quality medicine and medical. I would not be alive without them.
5. Relatively safe food, clean water and access to them.
6. I feel I have been blessed with living in the age I have and where I have.  Life has been open with many possibilities.  My generation may well be the last to have such access.
7. All of the above and I am truly at the end of life for myself.  And am having a ball.

We are on a trajectory that simply is what it is.  All studies show this is what happens to "civilizations".  It just has never been this global and consequently this dire.
It is tough for you and Kathy (my partner), with children and grandchildren that you love and would do anything for, to realize the inertia of this train we are on.

Several excellent books and articles many with excellent bibliographies:



Brafman, Ori and Brafman, Rom.  2008.  Sway: the irresistible pull of irrational behavior.  Doubleday. N.Y.

Fonseca, Eduardo Giannetti da.  2000. Lies we live by : the art of self-deception. St. Martin’s Press. New York.

Goleman, D.  1985.  Vital Lies Simple Truths.  Simon and Schuster. N.Y

Heffernan, Margaret.  2011.  Willful Blindness: Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril.  Walker.  N.Y.

Hirstein, William.  2005.   Brain fiction : self-deception and the riddle of confabulation. MIT Press. Cambridge, Mass.

Janoff-Bulman, Ronnie.  1992.  Shattered Assumptions.  Free Press. New York.

Kurzban, Robert.   2010.  Why everybody (else) is a hypocrite.   Princeton.

Lifton, Robert Jay and Greg Mitchell.  1995.  Hiroshima in America: A Half Century of  Denial.  Avon. N.Y.

Lockard, Joan S. and Paulhus, Delroy L. Editors.   1988.  Self-Deception: An Adaptive Mechanism.  Prentice Hall.  New Jersey.

Mele, Alfred R.  2001. Self-deception unmasked.   Princeton University Press. Princeton, N.J.

Nicholsen, Shierry Weber.   2002.  The Love of Nature and the End of the World.  MIT Press.   Cambridge.

Norgaard, Kari Marie.  2001.   Living in Denial.  MIT.  Cambridge.

Spector, Michael.  2009.   Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives.  Penguin.  N.Y.

Tavris, Carol and Aronson, Elliot.  2007.   Mistakes Were Made (but not by me).  Harcourt. N.Y.

Triandis, Harry Charalambos.  2009. Fooling ourselves : self-deception in politics, religion, and terrorism.  Praeger Publishers. Westport, Conn.

Trivers, Robert.  2011. The Folly of Fools.  Basic Books.  N.Y.

Twerski, Abraham J.  1997.  Addictive thinking : understanding self-deception.  Hazelden. Center City, MN.

Vaillant, George. 1992.  Ego Mechanisms of Defense: A Guide for Clinicans and Researchers. American Psychiatric Pub.

Watzlawick,P.; Weakland, J; and Risch, R.  1974.  Change: Principles of Problem Formation and Problem Resolution.  Norton.  N.Y.

Zerubavel, Eviatar.  2006.  The Elephant in the Living Room.  Oxford. London.   



The Many Faces of Denial by Paul Chefurka  http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Denial.html

In Defence of Inaction by Dave Pollard   http://howtosavetheworld.ca/2014/04/20/in-defence-of-inaction/

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Reality again



I know I have spent lots time on this subject.  We continue to be barraged by academic types with pencil and paper that think we can maintain our way of life using "renewables".   I am challenging this illusion that we can maintain BAU with “renewables” both at the level of needed energy and without further devastation of the environment (our true life support system).
When looking at the constraints to solar pv (actually all “renewables”) there are many ways to approach it.
  1. It is possible to prorate the energy of the infrastructure used to generate the devices that capture the sun or wind.  For those wishing to increase the ERoEI of the various “renewables” this is one illusion.  However, and a big however, there is a front-end cost of energy on a massive scale.  There is not just the energy to make the devices but the energy used to make the machines (engines, tires, electronics, etc), the chemicals, the refineries (aluminum, copper, rare minerals, etc) and other technologic inputs that are the infrastructure that supports the making the materials that go into the solar and wind devices.  That is why I call the essay machines making machines making machines. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/12/machines-making-machines-making.html
  2. Included, but standing alone, is the water necessary for all processes to make all this infrastructure in addition to what is used to make the solar and wind devices.       See: Water for energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource? WEO_2012_Water_Excerpt.pdf
  3. Included, but also standing alone, is the enormous environmental degradation (water, air, soil, biological diversity) associated both with the making of the infrastructure, the operation of the infrastructure and the making of the materials that go into solar and wind devices.
  4. In addition, the solar and wind devices do not stand alone, they have necessary supporting hardware – inverters, controllers, batteries, cables, monitoring instrumentation, etc – that will not last 25 years and must turn to the fossil fuel supply system to replace the supporting devices. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2013/10/a-small-fan.html    These auxiliary equipment manufacturing have water and environmental consequences also.
  5. Because renewables will never replace themselves as a horse or oak tree does, once they need replacing including the auxiliary support equipment there will not be the fossil fuel energy to accomplish this especially if it is 25 years down the road.
  6. Even if the solar and wind devices could generate enough energy to replace themselves (and the required infrastructure) they will then need more excess energy to build the equipment that we want to have the electricity for in the first place (radios, vacuum cleaners, water pumps, etc.) Not going to happen.
  7. Given the above “renewable” devices are not green, are not “renewable” like the sun and wind, and are not sustainable.
  8. Given the above, with the reliance on fossil fuels to build the infrastructure and then generate the materials to create the devices to capture the sun and wind, so-called renewables support fracking, tar sands, deep ocean drilling and mountain top removal for coal.
  9. On top of all this the ERoEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) of photovoltaics is seriously low Energy in Australia: Peak Oil, Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment by Prieto, Pedro A., Hall, Charles  2013.           Energy in Australia: Peak Oil, Solar Power, and Asia's Economic Growth (SpringerBriefs in Energy / Energy Analysis) by Graham Palmer http://www.springer.com/energy/renewable+and+green+energy/book/978-3-319-02939-9                                                                                                            I don’t have actual energy data for the infrastructure that must be in place to create the devices that capture the sun and wind.  There are as indicated research papers on ERoEI of various “renewables” but they don’t directly assess the information on the infrastructure energy.  I use the quote below to indicate what is required to maintain the lifestyle we are privileged to enjoy and wish wo maintain at all costs.                                                                                         From: “Scientific American” Volume 308, Issue 4   Will Fossil Fuels Be Able to Maintain Economic Growth? A Q&A with Charles Hall
What happens when the EROI gets too low? What’s achievable at different EROIs?
If you've got an EROI of 1.1:1, you can pump the oil out of the ground and look at it. If you've got 1.2:1, you can refine it and look at it. At 1.3:1, you can move it to where you want it and look at it. We looked at the minimum EROI you need to drive a truck, and you need at least 3:1 at the wellhead. Now, if you want to put anything in the truck, like grain, you need to have an EROI of 5:1. And that includes the depreciation for the truck. But if you want to include the depreciation for the truck driver and the oil worker and the farmer, then you've got to support the families. And then you need an EROI of 7:1. And if you want education, you need 8:1 or 9:1. And if you want health care, you need 10:1 or 11:1.


From my perspective, the government already has misused money supporting “renewables” in the mistaken belief that they are green, renewable and sustainable.  There is a whole bureaucracy whose sole existence and salary depends on this belief. Those who think the government is going to come through and make major commitment to “renewables” (which I don’t support for the above reasons) have missed what has happen overtly to the United States of America in the last thirty years.  (actually from the beginning but don’t tell the history teachers)

Continuing down the path of proselytizing for “renewables” is simply more of the same – business as usual under a high tech guise.  It creates a false hope that will trap us further.  It really is ethnocentric from the point of view of the so-called developed world because that family in Bangladesh will not be getting their pv panels any time soon. 

Many are clinging to a hope that this magnificient (yet earth killing) lifestyle we are privileged to enjoy can some how be maintained at some level.  Not going to happen because of energy, climate, population, soil, water, oceans, and war. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2013/11/to-die-for.html

This essay speaks to the issues we must address to survive as a species;

We must work towards an energy use not high tech at all.   The longer we wait to accept the truth, the more devastating will the consequences be environmentally but especially socially and psychologically.


Here are examples of the equipment needed to mine the materials for solar and wind devices.  Look at the fuel use on the diesel/electric truck. 

There was a great show on the Komatsu 930e

To extract precious metals found beneath the earth requires a massive 232-ton, two-story-tall dump truck with a load capacity of 320 tons — a giant earth-mover like the Komatsu 930E. This amazing engineering achievement is made possible by five essential raw ingredients: coal, chromium, mineral oil, latex rubber and sulphuric acid, an electron superhighway that generates massive power.
“Raw to Ready” on PBS www.pbs.org/program/raw-ready/
Runtime: 54 minutes
Original air date: October 16, 2013


Friday, February 7, 2014

Solar Investing?

This is another editorial I have sent.


A new scientific study shows it takes years to payback the energy used in solar electric devices. EROI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) says it takes energy – mining, drilling, refining, transporting, installing, maintenance, and replacement parts – to make the devices necessary to capture solar energy. 
Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment by Prieto, Pedro A., Hall, Charles  2013.

This book presents the first complete energy analysis of a large-scale, real-world deployment of photovoltaic (PV) collection systems representing 3.5 GW of installed, grid-connected solar plants in Spain.  Prieto and Hall conclude that the EROI of solar photovoltaic is only 2.45, very low despite Spain’s ideal sunny climate.  Germany’s EROI is probably 20 to 33% less (1.6 to 2), due to less sunlight and efficient rooftop installations.

“Solar advocates can learn from this analysis . . . “  Not looking at the reality of EROI “is not good science and leads to wasted money and energy that could have been better spent preparing more wisely for declining fossil fuels in the future.”

This study does not detail the environmental destructive mining, toxic chemicals or air and water pollution necessary to get the materials for manufacturing and installing solar devices.  It is the sun not the devices that is renewable, green and sustainable.

Sometimes the truth doesn’t set you free; it simply creates denial for short-term fun or profit.

Invest in solar now while we still have the fossil fuels from fracking, deep water drilling, Canadian tar sands and mountain top removal for coal.  Then we can have the massive trucks, large refineries, huge manufacturing facilities for glass, aluminum, copper, and photovoltaic cells that are necessary for these high tech, temporary solutions.  Don’t let true science or concern about the earth’s future stand in your way.