



John Weber
http://energyskeptic.com/2011/optimism-versus-ignorance/
Posted on October 26, 2011 by energyskeptic
When it comes to scientific topics like peak oil and climate change, are people’s opinions based on optimism, or ignorance? Does optimism prevent people from even obtaining the information that would make them less optimistic?
To answer this, consider what it took for me to become aware of peak oil, peak resources, and climate change:
1) Being curious about many topics
2) Majoring in biology with a chemistry/physics minor
3) Becoming involved in alternate technology groups when I was in college during the first energy crisis
4) Continuing to read about science after I graduated
5) Understanding the scientific method – how we know what we know –how else can you tell truth from falsehood?
6) Critical thinking skills (especially via Skeptic and other magazines devoted to this subject)
7) A hell of a lot of bedrock knowledge to evaluate new information.
8) Getting bedrock knowledge, “a big picture view”, from (systems) ecology, evolution, cognitive science, cosmology, biology, agriculture, engineering, soil science, medicine and health, economics (history of & natural capital), etc.
9) Willing to continue despite having cherished notions crushed – it’s like finding Santa doesn’t exist over and over again.
10) Willing to continue despite the very negative feedback from friends and family who thought I was nuts and unrealistic (pessimistic) see “Telling Others”
11) Having time to read: no children, reading a lot while commuting (including while walking back and forth to work 10 miles a day).
12) Reading BOOKS, which connect the dots (of articles). People who are too busy to get new information beyond TV sound bites will never understand anything important.
13) It takes a lot of reading to really understand a topic. For example, to understand how soil affects plant growth, I spent 3 years reading soil science textbooks, peer-reviewed articles, and college-level courses before I knew enough to write just the soil sections within “Peak Soil”
14) Knowing where and how to find the very small amount of information that contradicts all the positive press releases and articles
15) Reading Grandpa’s autobiography “Memories of an Unrepentant Field Geologist”, where I discovered he was a good friend of someone called M. King Hubbert who predicted there’d be a peak in oil production, and doing an interent search on Hubbert.
I still wouldn’t be here if I hadn’t found peak oil internet forums from my “Hubbert” search in #15 above, and found forums like energyresources and runningonempty), where I found out about books like Youngquist’s “Geodestinies”, Gever’s “Beyond Oil”, Hayden’s “Solar Fraud”, and Trainer’s “Renewable energy cannot sustain a consumer society”. The Bay Area reads more books per capita than anywhere else in the United States, yet these books never appeared in any bookstore in the Bay Area, let alone books by Charles hall, David Pimentel, and others too numerous to mention (see my book list ). Some of these books are at the University of California, Berkeley library, the 3rd largest university library system in the United States, and I’m often the only person or one of several to have read them! But I would have never stumbled on them in the vast stacks, and I didn’t even know until about 6 years ago that the public has access to these libraries for $100 a year.
It’s still very hard to find this kind information that contradicts positive articles because negative scientific results are often not published and publishers explicitly state in their guidelines they won’t publish pessimistic books (they’re hard to sell).
I continue to find new information in internet forms, but also by reading Science, Nature, and other peer-reviewd journals, as well as the books recommended (Science only publishes their long list of books received online).
Then there’s the “bop-a-mole” problem. Pimentel, Patzek, Hall, many others, and I (Peak Soil) have explained why plant-based fuel can never replace oil for dozens of reasons — from topsoil depletion and compression, EROEI, composting or combustion of the biomaterial in storage, weather preventing harvest, eutrophication of waterways from fertilizers to grow crops, not enough water to grow plants, energy to collect and deliver biomass to biorefinery, energy to deliver biofuel to customer, and hunger (in my paper I have a caption of “Do you want to eat, drink, or drive?”).
It seemed like there was actually some effect – scientific researchers vowed to stay away from corn ethanol and pursue cellulosic ethanol or butanol from non-food crops. Though that still doesn’t get around all the other problems listed above. But never mind, science researchers got hundreds of millions in funding from BP and other sources, and I think that quietly they’re more looking at how to use plants to replace chemicals and the other 500,000 products made with oil as a component than for fuel.
Just because the corn mole was bopped down doesn’t keep the other moles from popping up. Especially annoying is the algal biofuel mole (see 38 reasons Algae will never replace oil ).
Or consider all the positive information that constantly is published about solar, wind, and other energy that would generate electric power. Before you can begin to understand why these articles are too optimistic, you have to keep in mind while reading them that
1) our problem is oil, which accounts for 99% of transportation
2) that the electric grid is falling apart and needs at least $2 trillion in expansion to balance the alternative energy load
3) that the grid can only handle so much intermittent power which has to be balanced by more and more natural gas peaker plants (and natural gas is finite despite all the fracking)
4) that some of the rare metals required are depleting faster than fossil fuels
5) that at best these energy resources can augment fossil fuels, but once oil is gone, they’ll vanish too, because these sources aren’t capable of reproducing themselves: They don’t generate enough energy to mine the rock, crush the ore, fabricate the metal, maintain themselves (especially windmills which start to break down more and more often after about 2 years), build the roads and vehicles to transport the device to remote locations, feed / house / educate / fuel the cars of the employees involved from birth to death involved in this entire process, etc.
I think that it’s okay people don’t understand the situation we’re in because there’s nothing that can be done, we’ve so way, way, way overshot carrying capacity locally, regionally, and globally. If people did realize the real situation, the financial system would have already collapsed when Science announced peak oil happened sometime in 2005 and the IEA said peak happened in 2006. That means our economy can’t grow endlessly and the entire credit/debts-payed-off system no longer works. As long as people think other kinds of energy will seamlessly replace oil and don’t know how much their lives depend on oil, civilization continues, and when it crashes, will crash that much harder and faster, perhaps our only hope of preventing our extinction (and millions of other species).
I think that it’s okay people don’t understand the situation we’re in because there’s nothing that can be done, we’ve so way, way, way overshot carrying capacity locally, regionally, and globally. If people did realize the real situation, the financial system would have already collapsed when Science announced peak oil happened sometime in 2005 and the IEA said sometime in 2006. That means our economy can’t grow endlessly and the entire credit/debts-payed-off system no longer works. As long as people think other kinds of energy will seamlessly replace oil and don’t know how much their lives depend on oil, civilization continues, and when it crashes, will crash that much harder and faster, perhaps our only hope of preventing our extinction (and millions of other species).
Alice Friedemann in Oakland, CA

I would like to have lights. Having lived off the grid for 30 years, ten of which was without electricity, I would like to have lights.
During the ten years without electricity, I got my lights from kerosene lamps. I got a masters degree in psychology using kerosene lights. The experience taught me the old saying, “a place for everything and everything in its place” because a kerosene lamp doesn’t give off a lot of light. I love to read and I did okay.
I can’t make kerosene. I could make oil from various plants by pressing them. Whales are scarce in Northern Minnesota so that option is out. So I thought I might make an electric light. Below find an image of an electric light and its components from a mining company.
If the above is not clear you can find the original at:
Http://www.joy.com/en/Joy/Mineral-Information/Minerals-At-Work.htm
It is fairly clear I won’t be making a light bulb anytime soon. There are many minerals and much energy to extract, process and manufacture those minerals that without fossil fuels will make if very difficult. Thirty years off the grid and not one second of that time was I disconnected from the fossil fuel world.
For twenty years, I had solar electric panels and wind generation with batteries and various electronics. Each and all of these were products of the fossil fuel world from the raw products in the ground to the finished product in my home.
There are large, idealized movements to switch to “renewable” energy sources with the hope of maintaining a semblance of the life style we in the developed economies are use to. As I have written elsewhere, all the devices for capturing, storing, transporting and managing these “renewable” energies require fossil fuels. (See: Energy in the Real World with pictures of proof. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/01/energy-in-real-world.html )
There are paper plans that propose that solar electric panels, solar focused steam, wind, biofuels, etc. can make enough energy to reproduce themselves. I say do it. Make a demonstration project of tons of various materials extracted, processed, manufactured, transported and installed using only “renewable” energy.
Oh, and then make a light bulb with the extra energy you have. I want lights.
There are those that think that I am a doomer. I think I am a realist. In fact, I agree with a wise woman on one of my mailing lists:
Posted by: kathy Sep 3, 2011
“Got thinking about this morning. Supposing a wife tells her 6 pack a day husband that he is going to die from lung cancer or emphysema? Is she a doomer? Or is he perhaps the doomer as he is continuing to do things that may doom him to an early death?
Is a scientist who warns of global warming a doomer or are the dirty coal burning factories the true doomers?
Is someone who warns of the dire possibility of collapsing more and more fisheries a doomer or are the factory fishing boats the doomers?
Are the people who warn about building nuclear power plants on fault lines doomers, or are those who build them there the doomers? Would living with less energy in Japan be a worse doom than Fukushima?
Warning of potential doom does not make you a doomer IMHO, participating in activities that make that doom more likely - that makes you a doomer”
Of course, we are all caught. Not one of us is voluntarily going to really reduce our consumption to levels that are truly sustainable across decades. It is not the nature of the beast. (See - http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/05/we-are-here.html and http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-middle-ages.html )
I think that we will continue as we are until we cannot. One of the reasons is easy and cheap as stated by Nicols Fox in Against the Machine:
“There is within every human the perpetual pull of opposites. Fear taunts courage; willpower struggles with appetite; order with disorder. Caution tugs at curiosity as impulse teases aversion. For all the stimulation of the new, there remains the powerful comfort and security of the known. We are, like Dr. Dolittle’s famous Pushme-Pullyou, conflicted creatures. Individuality is defined by these differences, by where the balance is struck.
But one impulse in particular seems to have weak competition or none at all. The appeal of ease, or the less-taxing option, is unquestioned. Only the obstinate, the perverse, the eccentric, or the mad, the conventional wisdom toes, intentionally choose the more difficult over the easier method of reaching a goal. The hatchet or the ax over the chain saw? “I like the feel of the ax in my hand, the resistance, the thud of impact. I like to feel I am linked to what I am doing. I like the quiet in the forest, the smell of rosin, even the living shudder of the tree as the x bites, “ says the old woodsman. The logger smiles, pulls the starter on his chain saw, and has seven trees down in the time the woodsman spends on one. And the logger’s boss brings in the feller-buncher, the giant machine that grasps each tree in a steel embrace, then cuts it and stacks it with its downed companions as if it were kindling; and logger smiles no more as the new machine does the work of seven chain-saw-bearing men and he finds himself reading want ads. Seldom, however, is the original impulse to make things easier questioned.
The religious have always known that ease is a dangerous road to travel. One reason for caution is that it’s sometimes hard to tell who the real beneficiary is. Or whether something is really as easy as it first seems. Or whether ease costs more than it appears to. Or whether something is being lost in the transition that hasn’t been mentioned, or foreseen, or accounted for. Machines, in the time of Carlyle, Dickens, and Ruskin, were making production easier. The matter of “at what cost” had just begun to be considered, and then only by a very few.”
The other thing I would like from electricity is a 1/2 hp motor. It can run many things – pump water, grind grain, power a vacuum cleaner, etc. I think making a 1/2 hp motor will be just as daunting as making an electric light bulb.
This is the reality of a world without the gift from life past, time and the pressure of the earth in the form of fossil fuels. It will be here tomorrow.
Slowly (maybe not so slowly) becoming obstinate, perverse, eccentric, and mad.
I hold up a cup of hot coffee. “What is the energy in this cup of hot coffee?” I ask. The obvious answer, you heated the water. Embedded energy. Embedded energy. In the making of the cup. In the purification of the water and supplying it to me. In the gift of the hydrologic cycle making “fresh” water (if there aren’t too many pollutants in the air – a la acid rain). In the growing and processing of the coffee. In the transporting the coffee from there to here to me. The coffee maker. In the knowledge of all these things. And on and on and on.
Energy is embedded in every facet of our lives.
Fossil fuels are also insinuated into every facet of our lives not just as energy. Some of the medicine we use:
“The vast majority of medicines, are summarized as from benzene, and derivatives, and benzene is derived from petroleum, some examples are all those drugs which carry a bencenic ring , such as aspirin, acetaminophen, salicilic acid, sertraline, benzodiazepines, barbiturics, antiseptics, antiemetics, ulcer treatment, like aloglutamol, ranitidine, famotidine, omeprazole, lanzoprazole, pantoprazole, antiespasmodics, like hioscine, fluopropione, thiopramide, phloroglucinol, lidamidine.It is correct to say, that for all the areas it covers Medicine at present, each has medicines derived from petroleum, through synthesis of benzene or derivatives of benzene.”
I' Chemist-Pharmacist,Phd, MSc. 30 years experience, Medicines Quality Control, Manufacturing, Synthesis research. http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080206175810AAiAVJu
Now of course you are not going to read all of these lists. You get the point. And all the plastics in the list and beyond the list. Our world is infused and created with fossil fuels. And the food system with the tractors and huge machinery, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, tractor trailers hauling, food processing, grocery stores, home cooking and all that goes with it.
We could do the same for water, which is on a par with energy as necessary and critical for life of all kinds. Of course, we might now be choosing to further pollute our water underground for greed and energy by fracking. FRACKING. It sounds almost obscene, in practice it is.
About that bike you are going to ride. That beautiful 21 speed, lightweight speed demon. Tires, medal, gears, grease. Embedded energy? Water?
When I hear talk about transition towns, I wonder if they take into consideration even a small modicum of the lists from above. Or are they like the college kids who go out for a night or two and live in cardboard boxes in support of the homeless and then go home to their warm homes, good food and health care?
I have already written about the illusion of “renewable resources.”
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/01/energy-in-real-world.html
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/06/renewable-illusion.html
However, there is one solution that looms on the horizon. It will take considerable patience but might just work. Pixie dust. They are small and fast but it might just work. Investments welcome.
What will work is community, planning, hard work and knowledge – do it now!
Busy. This time of year is always busy so not writing much. Got the fencing up that now allows us to have a three crop rotation system and sometime in the future animals to move around those fields. The little house is habitable with only one more step to have the well changed over to old time cylinder and pump with no need for electricity. Sold three solar hot water panels to a really nice family and bought a wood cook stove for the farm. All set up. Our shiitake mushrooms have gone nuts this year. They just keep producing. Our learning about using the greenhouse is paying off here at the lake. I have designed a larger one for the farm. Will put the base by this fall so I can work on it first thing in the spring. Opened up two more areas for rotating crops primarily potatoes. Am tightening the 8 foot tall fences. I had never done that kind of fencing and didn’t have the right tool for tightening single lines. Live and learn. Lots of other odd jobs.
I fear the shit may have hit the fan financially around the globe and here in the U.S. of A. It is so hard to tell. I am still not sure if this not a somewhat manipulated ploy to homogenize labor wages globally. Feudal system anyone.
There seems to be a major disconnect all across the board. Some is blindness, some is willful repression of facts, some is guile and some is plain, unadulterated stupidity.
We also have major company coming for 10 days soon. Many people will be staying here which will allow this curmudgeon recluse to try out sleeping over at the farm house for a few days.
Here is a great quote. It couples well with my belief only being forced by necessity be it technological, financial or resource will humans adopt a more reasonable, less intrusive and abusive lifestyle. The book is more on literary responses to technology and very well written.
“There is within every human the perpetual pull of opposites. Fear taunts courage; willpower struggles with appetite; order with disorder. Caution tugs at curiosity as impulse teases aversion. For all the stimulation of the new, there remains the powerful comfort and security of the known. We are, like Dr. Dolittle’s famous Pushme-Pullyou, conflicted creatures. Individuality is defined by these differences, by where the balance is struck.”
But one impulse in particular seems to have weak competition or none at all. The appeal of ease, or the less-taxing option, is unquestioned. Only the obstinate, the perverse, the eccentric, or the mad, the conventional wisdom toes, intentionally choose the more difficult over the easier method of reaching a goal. The hatchet or the ax over the chain saw? “I like the feel of the ax in my hand, the resistance, the thud of impact. I like to feel I am linked to what I am doing. I like the quiet in the forest, the smell of rosin, even the living shudder of the tree as the x bites, “ says the old woodsman. The logger smiles, pulls the starter on his chain saw, and has seven trees down in the time the woodsman spends on one. And the logger’s boss brings in the feller-buncher, the giant machine that graspes each tree in a steel embrace, then cuts it and stacks it with its downed companions as if it were kindling; and logger smiles no more as the new machine does the work of seven chain-saw-bearing men and he finds himself reading want ads. Seldom, however, is the original impulse to make things easier questioned.”
“The religious have always known that ease is a dangerous road to travel. One reason for caution is that it’s sometimes hard to tell who the real beneficiary is. Or whether something is really as easy as it first seems. Or whether ease costs more than it appears to. Or whether something is being lost in the transition that hasn’t been mentioned, or foreseen, or accounted for. Machines, in the time of Carlyle, Dickens, and Ruskin, were making production easier. The matter of “at what cost” had just begun to be considered, and then only by a very few.”
Close on the heels of ease is cheap, and the combination, especially in goods, is virtually irresistible. Low cost and convenience: the machine made it possible.”
Pg. 79-80 Fox, Nicols. 2002. Against the Machine. Island Press. London.