Sunday, November 24, 2013

A Hammer looking for a Nail



A local man and friend wants to bring “Gardening for Decades” to the schools along with a mock up of a solar home with panels of various kinds.  He works for a local organization that has as an auxiliary a manufacturer of solar hot air panels and an installer of solar electric panels.  The main man funding all this made big money with an invention.  He is now working on fusion. 

I told my friend whom I have known for many years that I was afraid he was creating false hopes among the young.

John,
Thanks for your honesty and concern.  "Gardening for decades" I feel has value.  The reality is that very few small and medium farms are making a profit, let alone a living wage, yet many continue to try. False hope is definitely not what we are looking to create, but your knowledge of whole systems could be very valuable, I believe.

Maybe we can get together and discuss.

Jim
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My Answer

I have several essays that I would suggest you read since I have covered some of this material already. (see end of this message)   I don’t believe it will make any difference.  There are those who believe technology will “save us”.  To me they are simply “business as usual” proponents who do not look at the whole system of energy and other resources necessary for the “saving”. 

This is the tale of the technologist/cornucopian.  

  “.   .   .   Abraham Kaplan’s.  .  . : "I call it the law of the instrument, and it may be formulated as follows: Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding."  .  .   .  also been called the law of the hammer, attributed both to Maslow and to Kaplan.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_the_instrument
I heard it, when you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.


In the 70s, I was at a debate where Dean Abrahamson, a physicists and physician at the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota, trashed the proponents of nuclear power.  A man sitting next to be was actually crying.  I asked him what was the matter.  He said, “I work for GE making nuclear power plants, this is how I feed my family.” http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2012/02/get-job.html


There is much to be addressed in the unintended consequences of technology and in the blind use of technology without total system consideration.  Having said that I continue to tilt at windmills.

I agree, "Gardening for decades" not only has value; it is a necessity.  I do not see this as “business as usual” simply absorbing gardening as another activity like golf or travel agent or wind generator technician.   For me, sustainability means the majority of us (globally) will need to be horticulturalist and practice animal husbandry.  

However, if “gardening for decades” is high towers and hydroponics and solar collectors heating the ground – then, to me, this is industrial gardening and not in anyway, shape or form sustainable.  This could be among my concerns of creating false hope.

It is the sustainability that I challenge.  How we live now is not sustainable – not physically and not psychologically.   It is a finite earth.  The present bright light - both literally from fossil fuels and metaphorically from human creativity - is simply too glaring in its need for resources and continued consumption.  Not only is this not sustainable; it threatens the very ecosystem that sustains life including our own – oceans, rivers, underground water, air, nuclear releases, human made chemical envelopment, overpopulation fostered by fossil fuel energy and its products (overshoot), invasive genetic manipulation, warming climate to name a few of the converging harms. 

As an aside, if fusion should be developed, what will stop it from continuing the trashing of the earth?  How will we assess the unintended consequences? This is more “business as usual”  (BAU)  For me the best place for fusion is 93 million miles away on the sun. 

Most looking at sustainability would address the physical needs -daily, seasonal and generational - to arrive at a sustainable way of being.  This is a question of materials and technology.   My belief is that we must also address the social/psychological questions, or all the technological adjustments in the world will only result across time (considered in generations not millenniums) with “same old, same old”. 

We are the biggest hurdle we face.  Without a resolution, I address this at the end of the essay.

Physically, our lifestyle/lifeway will need to be at a lesser level of energy consumption; a lesser level of nonfuel mineral consumption such as copper, iron, aluminum, rare minerals, phosphorus and many others for a non-brutish, yet simple lifestyle.

Envision this gardeningway - what physical tools are needed?  Hoes, shovels, cultivators, wagons, pumps, .  .  .  .
For each of these tools, we need to be able to answer the questions about what resources and energy sources are available to make them?   We need to ask the question what is the infrastructure that makes these tools available?  If you have steel, is it straight from ore or is it recycled?  Is that recycling via remelting and fabricating?   Or is it recycling by mining today’s trash and adapting the given shapes to needs?   What energy is needed to accomplish either of these approaches?  What quantity can be made?  Quality? 

How will the land be replenished?  If it is three-field rotation, how much land per person, family, group is needed for long term sustainability?  There must be a community of people to trade and interact.  Even more important, there must be many communities that are not human or human dominated.  In space and time, these need to be multiples of each human community.  We must not mine them for food, other energy or other minerals. 

What animals will be incorporated in the whole system as was done on farms of old?   All the questions of similar ilk for animal husbandry.   

How will we transport things?  How will we work the land?  How fast do we need to go?  A human and a horse walk around 3 mph.  How much “horse power” do we need?  What is the motive force?

Water???   How – a well?  Irrigation for the garden? 

There is one study out of Stanford University that says we can meet all our energy needs with “renewables” by 2030.  They do not really look at the whole system – infrastructure to make and continue making.   They also propose 50% from wind by 2030 which would entail if started in 2012 – 24 massive wind machines built and installed every hour, 24 hours a day for 18 years.  They argue (I had a lengthy email discussion with one of the authors) that we do that with automobiles.  Talk about more trashing of the environment.

If all of these concerns are not part of the equation, then technologically, I believe you are selling pipe dreams (not necessarily with a pipe but for me certainly myopic and a fantasy for the future).

However, the technology for the future is not our main problem.  The conundrum facing us is our own human/natural selves. There are at least five natural factors that determine and will continue to determine our history and future.
* All life reproduces to the maximum that their environment allows (this is population density).
* All life will use all the resources in its environment to promote its present living (this is population pressure).
* Much of life manifests an ‘us against them’ protectionism (even plants release poisons to the soil to protect their territory).  This is not conflict for physical resources but also political and religious beliefs.  This is the convergence of territoriality (which is manifest by all life) and the need to belong for this dependently social animal called human.
* We are immersed in an environment of our own making and our "brilliance" threatens us with unintended consequences (whether agriculture, human-made chemicals in the water or nuclear power).
* Groups larger than the small group of 30 to 200 people, which is the social environment in which we evolved for a million years, creates power-over and inequality.
These five factors are a natural part of life and being human. For more detailed exposition:  http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/05/we-are-here.html

As a psychologist, I must add – once we deal with these five issues, we must then deal with the idiosyncrasies and “wounds” of individuals because family and culture inevitably shape us.  To paraphrase Arno Gruen, “to be born human is to be born into a dangerous situation because no one knows what they are doing.”  From Betrayal of the Self.

Here is a piece I wrote several decades ago:

If humanity were seen as a person who is 100 years old, the first 99 years of her life would have been spent as gatherer and hunter.  She would have only one year to adapt to the changes in family structure, living arrangements, child rearing and all the other pressures and stresses that the shift to agriculture brought.  This same 100-year-old person would have five or six days to adapt to the enormous changes brought about by the industrial revolution.   And less than a day to adapt to the mass of information made available by electronics.
Each adaptation moves us further away from the original social and physical environment of our emergence.  Is it bad or wrong?  This is not the criterion.  There is no fault.  Each accommodation comes from necessity and is the best we know at the time.  At the leading edge of human history is an accumulation that expands and deepens the knowledge of our travels.


“.  .  . it is easy to take up technics; it is almost impossible to lay them down.”
Introduction written by Frederick Wilhelmsen to The Failure of Technology by Frederich Jueger.  1956. pg. Viii.

“How you gonna keep them down on the farm once they have seen Paree?”

This is my concern – it is the hammer concern.  If you teach the young people that this technology will allow them to live a certain way, for me you are inadvertently and without malice misleading them.





Sunday, November 10, 2013

To Die For


Many parents work hard to assure their children’s future.  Many if asked would give their lives for their children and grandchildren. If a culture/society is at threat from outside forces, starvation or environmental stress, this support for the next generations falls by the wayside.  However, in general, mothers, fathers and grandparents will protect the future of their offspring.

We are surrounded by a litany of threats to the future - fracking, deep ocean drilling, tar sands; pollution from mountain top removal, destruction of natural resources, dying oceans, climate disasters of epic proportions, dangers of genetic engineering; corporate control, and population overshoot to name a few of the less subtle. Some would have more technology to combat these problems or at best forestall them.
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein

For citizens of developed nations, this is about lifestyle – energy and other resource consumption – will we change our lifestyle for the children and grandchildren’s future?  NO.

And now for a rousing chorus of – Yes, but .  .  .




There is one legitimate “Yes, but .  .  . 
You can't get there (wherever there is) from here!

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

A Small Fan


A small fan in my solar electric system died.  It kept a major part of the system from overheating and is necessary for continuous operation.  To manufacture that small fan a massive industrial infrastructure is necessary to provide the components.

The fan motor is wound with copper wire that comes from newly mined copper because of the need for purity.  “Wire supply is produced predominantly from newly refined copper .  .  .”
k Joseph, Günter, 1999, “Copper: Its Trade, Manufacture, Use, and Environmental Status”, edited by Kundig, Konrad J.A., ASM International Vol. 2.03, Electrical Conductors


Copper mining is done in huge pits using massive machines.  The refining of the ore is a series of processes, chemicals and along with the mining, intensive energy use.  You can see a DVD of this process on “Modern Marvels: Copper”.  You can also see a diagram and pictures of the equipment and process at:


A fascinating recent documentary on PBS – “Raw to Ready” - showed the development of the massive Komatsu 930-E: 
“to extract precious metals found beneath the earth requires a massive 232-ton, two-story-tall dump truck with a load capacity of 320 tons — a giant earth-mover like the Komatsu 930E. This amazing engineering achievement is made possible by five essential raw ingredients: coal, chromium, mineral oil, latex rubber and sulphuric acid, an electron superhighway that generates massive power.”

The manufacture of my solar electric system, in its use of copper, is tied into an international infrastructure of machines, equipment and energy. Aluminum, rare metals, coal, plastics, glass, rubber, multiple chemicals and many other material components are also a necessary additional part of this global material complex. 

Furthermore, it is dependent on this far ranging system for replacement parts.

Where are the motors in your world? – water pump, air conditioner, windshield wiper, and on and on and on.

Being aware of where things come from and what is involved in obtaining them is a major step in being responsible.  

There are many who will in private admit we are trashing the earth. 

Mindlessly!



Copper Mining Info

The above flowsheet shows a basic copper mine process, from mine to metal. There are two distinct types of copper ore, the sulfide ore and the oxide ore. The sulfide ores are beneficiated in flotation cells, while the oxide ores are generally leached. First the copper ore from a open pit mine is blasted, loaded and transported to the primary crushers. Then the ore is crushed and screened, with the fine sulfide ore (~-0.5 mm) going to froth flotation cells for recovery of copper. The coarser ore goes to the heap leach, where the copper is subjected to a dilute sulfuric acid solution to dissolve the copper. Then the leach solution containing the dissolved copper is subjected to a process called solvent extraction (SX). The SX process concentrates and purifies the copper leach solution so the copper can be recovered at a high electrical current efficiency by the electrowinning cells. It does this by adding a chemical reagent to the SX tanks which selectively binds with and extracts the copper, is easily separated from the copper (stripped), recovering as much of the reagent as possible for re-use. The concentrated copper solution is dissolved in sulfuric acid and sent to the electrolytic cells for recovery as copper plates (cathodes). From the copper cathodes, it is manufactured into wire, appliances, etc. that are used in every day life. Below are some photos of the process:





















The primary crusher at a copper mine. The truck dumps ore into the crusher which crushes the ore. Screens size and distribute the classified ore to a series of conveyors, like those above, for transportation to the mill for further processing.


Conveyors and trucks deposit coarse ore on a heap leach pad, which has a series of pipes and hoses dispensing a diluted sulfuric acid solution to the ore. Copper is dissolved and flows to a pond at the bottom of the pad. This process can take several months. The leached solution is pumped to the SX (Solvent Extraction) circuit, which looks like a series of agitation tanks or cells. The fine sulfide ore is sent to froth flotation cells like those below for recovery.

The concentrates from the flotation cells are sent to the smelter for processing to a copper plate. The copper plate is then dissolved in sulfuric acid and sent to the electrowinning cells for plating onto cathodes, along with the concentrated copper from the SX circuits. The copper leach solution typically consists of 40 gm of copper and 200 gm sulfuric acid per liter. Current densities on the electrowinning cells can be 300 amperes per square foot, or more.



Banks of electrowinning cells with cathodes. Copper on the annodes ranges from 99.0 to 99.5 percent pure. Power consumed in electroplating copper ranges from 0.08 to 0.20 KWH per pound of copper. Any gold or silver in the copper does not plate out and drops to the bottom of the cell with the sludge to be recovered later.




Machine transporting and handling the copper cathodes that were removed from the electrowinning cells. That's it, the rest is manufacturing products from the pure copper!

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Our Potatoes

We grew 800 pounds of potatoes this year (2013).  They are specialty potatoes - adirondack blues, adirondack reds, all blue, fingerlings and a couple other types.  Here is a picture of half of them curing on the floor of our new building.


Here is our logo.  In Northern Minnesota there are many rocks, bigggg rocks and they are always slowly coming to the surface.  The red containers we got for free and adapted them to hold our potatoes.  They are about a bushel.   The plastic buckets we get from a local bakery.





This is the sign we have hanging from our mailbox.




 When we built the root cellar, we screwed the roof down with torque screws.  This august we took the roof off, went up a level and put it back on.  There are 6 inches of insulation in the walls and 12 inches in the ceiling.  Right now we are using it as a work house but other possibilities exist.  Below we still have a root cellar wall off so that will also be a basement below.  This last year our potatoes lasted before setting eyes until the first of July in the root cellar.  Even then they remained firm and edible.   Below is the before and after of the building.



Thursday, May 23, 2013

Just Wait! Who's predicting now?


This is well done.

Just Wait! Who's predicting now?
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=68250
Postby Pops » Wed 22 May 2013, 18:21:08
It dawns on me that Peakers are no longer the one's saying "Just wait!"

Once upon a time the idea of peak oil was all speculation. Around here it was a crystal ball prediction with a bunch of charts put together to show that some time in the future the easily extracted oil would become scarce and the world would need to turn to harder and more expensive sources. Then, went the prediction, production would not only stop increasing no matter how high the price but would eventually begin to fall. "Just wait" cried the Peak Oilers.

But those who believe desire creates resources said peak oil prediction was as old as oil production itself and that the day oil production can no longer grow would never come. Just look at the facts they said, production always increases, prices always fall, newer, easier oil is always found. PO Doom is just "fate" and Peakers have no faith that humans can cheat the inevitable, like the old saw: "The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stones."

But now, that whole situation has been turned on it's head. Now the basic events predicted by Peakers; stalled global production growth, even in the face of high prices, is the reality and no longer in the realm of speculation or "fear mongering". Now it's the cornucopians forced to say a return to the good old days of oil abundance is just around the corner; "Just Wait!" say the frackers.


The old argument against peak oil was, "Look, oil production is increasing". Now production of actual oil has been treading water for going on 8 years even at the highest average prices since oil production began. The only way to continue the illusion of increasing production has been to change the definition of oil to include stuff never counted as oil previously and even to quit calling it oil altogether. Now the stock line is "Look, All Liquids are increasing!" I guess the new saw will be the Oil Age didn't end for lack of oil, it was replaced with "Liquids".

But back out all the things counted in All Liquids that aren't oil and the reason to stop calling them "oil" becomes clear. Counting biofuels as oil for example double counts the oil used to make them, once when oil is produced and then again when the biofuels are produced using oil.

Then there is Refinery Gain, which aren't really gains at all in energy terms, the are simply volume increases that happen as oil is split into various finished products, it isn't an increase of energy and in fact it also ignores the energy used to split oil into finished product.

The biggest non-oil counted in All Liquids is "natural gas plant liquids" which counts things that never were counted as oil until true oil production ceased growing. They were never a part of the crude oil stream to begin with and for the most part never go into the crude oil stream now. And in any event, they contain significantly less energy than oil by volume so counting them as oil equivalent on a volume basis is like counting the buzz in Budweiser as equivalent to Wild Turkey on a volume basis.


So now that peak oil is all but in the history books (except for some shale bound oil that was not profitable until the plateau) we are in the funny situation that it's no longer Peak Oil that is the unbelievable forecast but the idea that somehow all the overcooked, undercooked, deep, arctic, extra heavy, tight, etc, etc, will be able to provide not only the same flow rate and net energy to replace the old continuous pressurized reservoirs but that they will continue growing forever more! The funnier part is that even after 7 or 8 years 80% of all tight oil in the world comes from just 2 fields and the CEO of one of the biggest frackers said the growth rate has already peaked.

But we see press releases, OilCo financed papers from prestigious institutions and ad campaigns all touting the new oil that is going to make America the next Saudi Arabia (if we can manage to cut our use in half). People here post every imaginable excuse and convoluted bit of logic trying to convince someone that they shouldn't believe their lying eyes, that the economy is in great shape, that oil prices are (variously) not that high or not a record or not a problem for consumers or if they are high it's because of [insert whatever non-supply-related excuse] and that the oil is (variously) perfectly matched to demand, no longer required to operate the economy, and above all that tight oil production is set to explode, any minute now.


"Just Wait!" they holler, frantically attaching wheels to the goalposts, "The good old days will be right back!"

Thursday, April 11, 2013

ET TU BRUTE


A couple of months ago I ended up in a conversation about conspiracies.  Some of what I heard seemed possible, some unadulterated BS.  So I went a lookin’.  I fell into a morass ranging from true conspiracies to suspicious behaviors to utter nonsense and silliness.  Distinctions between it all were not always clear because they often mixed together.

“A conspiracy theory explains an important social, political, or economic event as being caused or covered up by a covert group or organization.”
“The political scientist Michael Barkun discussing the usage of this term in contemporary American culture holds that a conspiracy theory is a belief which explains an event as the result of a secret plot by exceptionally powerful and cunning conspirators to achieve a malevolent end.[8][9] According to Barkun, the appeal of conspiracism is threefold: First, conspiracy theories claim to explain what institutional analysis cannot. They appear to make sense out of a world that is otherwise confusing. Second, they do so in an appealingly simple way, by dividing the world sharply between the forces of light, and the forces of darkness. They trace all evil back to a single source, the conspirators and their agents. Third, conspiracy theories are often presented as special, secret knowledge unknown or unappreciated by others. For conspiracy theorists, the masses are a brainwashed herd, while the conspiracy theorists in the know can congratulate themselves on penetrating the plotters' deceptions.”


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“In colloquial language, ‘conspiracy theory’ is not a neutral label used merely to describe a certain type of explanation.  It is an evaluative term with significant pejorative connotations.  .  .  . it is a way of branding an explanation untrue or insinuating that it is based on insufficient evidence, superstition or prejudice.
.  .  . positioning an explanation as a ‘conspiracy theory’ serves to legitimize the competing one as rational, reasonable and evidence-based.” Byford, Jovan.  2011.  Conspiracy Theories: A Critical Introduction.  Palgrave Macmillan. N.Y. Pg 21.

“.  .  . Furthermore, conspiracy theorizing is perceived not just as crazy, paranoid or absurd but also as politically suspect and antithetical to ‘proper’ democratic politics.   It is believed to be the sanctuary for kooks and extremists and therefore beyond the limits of respectable enquiry and legitimate political dissent.
Conspiracy theory operates as a resource for delegitimation not only at the individual level  .  .  .  Whole societies, communities or religions can be presented as ‘paranoid’ or as subscribing to absurd or politically discredited beliefs” Byford, Jovan.  2011.  Conspiracy Theories: A Critical Introduction.  Palgrave Macmillan. N.Y. pg. 23


“.  .  . Those who feel dispossessed, alienated and disenchanted with politics are believed to be attracted to conspiracy theories because such beliefs confirm the person’s sense that the world is beyond their control, while also protecting self-esteem by offering a simple explanation for existential and status-related problems.  It has also been found that susceptibility to conspiracy theorizing is not related to gender, education level or occupation, but is linked to minority status: members of minority groups tend to be more susceptible to conspiracy theorizing. .  .  .” Pg. 129-130
Byford, Jovan.  2011.  Conspiracy Theories: A Critical Introduction.  Palgrave Macmillan. N.Y.

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The Illuminati, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Bilderberg Group, The Trilateral Commission and the Masons are some of the “offending” groups.  John Kennedy’s assassination, Robert Kennedy’s assassination, Martin Luther King’s assassination, and Paul Wellstone’s death, are just a small number of the possibilities.  There are nasty fakes like “Protocols of the Elders of Zion”; this is a known fiction yet still believed by the die-hard conspiratists.  Unberto Eco wrote a wonderful fictional account - The Prague Cemetery, 2011).

The big three are the Council on Foreign Relations, the Bilderberg Group and The Trilateral Commission.  These are groups of the ultra-wealthy along with media people (who also aren’t hurting for money) and politicians (who also aren’t hurting) who meet in secret to thrash out ideas of how to create a one-world government with “them” in control.  After their secret conclaves they then ostensibly put out papers and make it known what their overt designs are.  They usually don’t reveal how all of their designs will be accomplished.

Let’s have a quick segue:

With conspiracy theorists, they see nested boxes of manipulation that can never be resolved.  Even with hard evidence or a confession by a conspiracy participant, theorists see this as a diversion, manufactured to protect the many underlying participants and manipulation.  With this approach, a conspiracy theory is a quasi-living thing.  I would guess that they would be sure that the Cain and Abel story was a front for a deeper conspiracy.

For real conspiracy theorists the Illuminati is behind many if not most things.
The Illuminati (plural of Latin illuminatus, "enlightened") is a name given to several groups, both real and fictitious. Historically the name refers to the Bavarian Illuminati, an Enlightenment-era secret society founded on May 1, 1776, to oppose superstition, prejudice, religious influence over public life, abuses of state power, and to support women's education and gender equality. Adam Weishaupt (1748–1830) was the founder of the Bavarian Illuminati. The Illuminati were outlawed along with other secret societies by the Bavarian government leadership with the encouragement of the Roman Catholic Church, and permanently disbanded in 1785.  In the several years following, the group was vilified by conservative and religious critics who claimed they had regrouped and were responsible for the French Revolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati

The nested boxes and the Illuminati are so ubiquitous that they probably wouldn’t buy the aforementioned Cain and Abel story.  They just know that underlying this, the Illuminati have pulled a quick one.

One more little seque


So we have a group of people with money and power that want to impose their beliefs on the world.  They use various methods of influence to accomplish this.  They have undermined existing cultures, societies, power structures and ultimately influence the economics of the places they invaded.  They were imposing their beliefs and ultimately gained access to resources and cheap labor.  No, this isn’t necessarily about the Council on Foreign Relations.  This about many hundreds of years of Christianity in South America, Mexico, the Pacific, Africa and all points east-west, north-south.  This is about crusades, witch burnings, book burnings and generalized war to impose “democracy”, their way of life by supposed Christian nations.  The difference????

Back to the “big boys”


The Bilderberg 2005 meeting spoke about the depletion of petroleum and skyrocketing costs.  Of course, they had top oil people there so this was not a ‘what if’ but a happening now. 
Estulin, Daniel.  2009.  The Bilderberg Group.  Trine Day.  Oregon. Pgs. 346-348.

The Bilderberg meeting was at odds over the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  The point here is that this is not necessarily a unified front although the invasion, of course, did take place.  Given the multiple public misinformation and the ultimate miscalculations of the results, I think this points to evidence that this group is not infallible in its decisions.

In reading about different takes on conspiracy, I found:
*  There are overt manipulations politically and economically
*  Lies of commission spread in mainstream media
*  Lies of omission “spread” in mainstream media
*  There are actions not directly linked to any group but suspicious like fortuitous deaths     (Paul Wellstone – highly vocal opponent to the second Gulf War)
*  There are cloaked actions that come to light (Iran-Contra)
*  There are actions outside the public awareness (so-called black ops).  

These ranges of activities make conspiracies possibly rife in the world and conspiracy theorists wallow in self-congratulations.  This suspicion and doubt can lead to a jaundiced eye observing the world.

Here are two examples of manipulative behaviors that are real happenings.

Example1.  From:  Shoup, Laurence and Minter, William.  1977.  Imperial Brain Trust: the Council on Foreign Relations and United States Foreign Policy.  Authors Choice Press.  N.Y.

“The Council groups, meeting jointly in Mid-January 1941, produced memorandum E-B26, which recommended to the State Department that it was in the national interest of the United States to check Japan’s advance into Southeast Asia.  Not only were the raw materials of that area very important to the United States in peace and war , but a Japanese takeover would greatly weaken the whole British position in Asia.” pg. 142      

“President Roosevelt agreed with the State Department-Council on Foreign Relations view, stressing the danger to British and American raw material supplies which Japanese expansion posed.  The president stated during the second half of 1941 that a Japanese attack on British and Dutch possession in the Far East would immediately threaten the vital interests of the nation and ‘should result in war with Japan.’”  pg. 142

“In late July 1941 Japanese leaders decided to move into southern Indochina as a first step toward control of Southeast Asia.  The American reaction was forceful: Japanese assets in the United States were frozen and a total economic embargo, including oil, was imposed.  Britain and the Netherlands government-in-exile followed suit.  The Council had recommended this policy in January 1941.  The seriousness of this action was well known at the time.  Many people had previously warned that it would provoke Japan into war, since it cut off many raw and finished materials, including oil, which that country had to have to survive as great power.” pg 144.

Example 2. From: Yant, Martin.  1991.  Desert Mirage.  Prometheus Books.  N.Y. and other sources; all verifiable. 
See:
U.S. Conspiracy to Initiate the War Against Iraq   http://deoxy.org/wc/wc-consp.htm
How Reagan Armed Saddam with Chemical Weapons          http://www.counterpunch.org/2004/06/17/how-reagan-armed-saddam-with-chemical-weapons/


* 1980: The incoming Reagan administration, seeing the Islamic revolution in Iran as a threat, encourages the subsequent Iraqi invasion of Iran, with promises of arms, money and intelligence.
*  In addition to billions of dollars in arms, the Reagan Administration provides the Iraqi Regime with chemical and biological weapons.
One year after Iraq uses US-supplied chemical weapons against Iranian troops, the Reagan Administration resumes normal diplomatic relations with Iraq, and removes it from the list of countries that support terrorism.
* The Iran/Iraq War stretches on for 8 years, claims over a million lives and bankrupts     Iraq.
* 1988: After the war ends, Iraq's erstwhile ally, Kuwait, floods the world oil market, lowering oil  prices, worldwide.
* This undercuts Iraq's efforts to rebuild its war-ravaged economy and infrastructure.
After Hussein's pleas fall on deaf ears, he begins to consider military action against Kuwait.
* When he informs the US about his plans to invade Kuwait, US
Ambassador, April Glaspie tells him: "We  (The United States) have no opinion on your border dispute with Kuwait. James Baker (then Secretary of State) has instructed our spokesmen to EMPHASIZE this instruction."
* Given this green light to invade Kuwait, Saddam Hussein does so.
* The Bush Administration immediately renegs on its assurances, and begins preparations for war.
* Iraqi offers to withdraw from Kuwait, in exchange for convening a Middle East peace summit are ignored.

These two - provoking Japan and manipulating Iraq – are examples of overt methods that could be called conspiracies and led to riches for war industries and deaths of millions of people.


Before moving on to a wet dream for conspiracy theorist’s, let me note that John Hancock, (yes, our John Hancock) signer of the Declaration of Independence, was a smuggler and rum runner extraordinaire.
Andreas, Peter. 2013.  Smuggler Nation: how Illicit Trade Made America.  Oxford.  N.Y. pg. 239.

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A happy Conspiracy Theorist



The Georgia Guidestones is a mysterious monument on which are carved ten  commandments  for a New Age of Reason.   The Georgia Guidestones is an enigmatic granite monument situated in Elbert County, Georgia. Also known as the American Stonehedge, the gigantic structure is almost 20 feet high and is made of six granite slabs, weighing in total 240,000 pounds. The most astonishing detail  of the monument is, however, not its size but the message engraved into it: Ten rules for an Age of Reason . These guides touch upon subjects that are associated with the New World Order, including massive depopulation, a single world government, the introduction of a new type of spirituality, etc. The authors of those rules have requested to remain totally anonymous and, until now, their anonymity has been duly preserved. However, this mysterious group left a text explaining the reasoning behind the rules, a text that was not discussed online before. With this new information, the purpose behind the Guidestones become very clear, leaving little room for hypotheses. The Guidestones describe the ideal world, as envisioned by occult Secret Societies. The monument is therefore proof of an existing link between secret societies, the world elite and the push for a New World Order.
Made of Pyramid blue granite, the Georgia Guidestones are meant to withstand the test of time and to communicate knowledge on several levels: philosophically, politically, astronomically, etc. It consists of four major stone blocks, which contain ten guides for living in eight languages: English, Spanish, Swahili, Hindi, Hebrew, Arabic, Chinese, and Russian. A shorter message is inscribed at the top of the structure in four ancient languages  scripts: Babylonian, Classical Greek, Sanskrit, and Egyptian hieroglyphs. It is important to note that those last four ancient languages are of a great importance in the teachings of occult mystery schools, such as the Freemasons and the Rosicrucians.

The four major stones are arranged in a giant paddlewheel configuration which are oriented to the limits of the migration of the sun during the course of the year and also show the extreme positions of the rising and setting of the sun in its 18.6 year cycle. The center stone has two special features: first, the North Star is always visible through a special hole drilled from the South to the North side of the center stone; second, another slot aligns with the positions of the rising sun at the time of the summer and winter solstices and at the equinox.




The ten guides for a new Age of Reason are as follows:
    1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
    2. Guide reproduction wisely improving fitness and diversity.
    3. Unite humanity with a living new language.
    4. Rule passion, faith, tradition and all things with tempered reason.
    5. Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
    6. Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
    7. Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
    8. Balance personal rights with social duties.
    9. Prize truth, beauty, love, seeking harmony with the infinite.
    10. Be not a cancer on the earth, Leave room for nature, Leave room for nature.






The first guide of population reduction is called elitist by the various conspiracy websites.  This number of 5 hundred million is the low estimate of how many people the earth could feed without the fossil fuel endowment running machinery, providing fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, electrical irrigation, transportation, food processing and preservation.  This is the approximate global population prior to the beginning of the industrial age - 500 million between years 1500 and 1650 AD.   The upper limit that has been suggested is 2 billion - the world population around 1930.  This is near the transition to industrial agriculture.

Most of these guides are wishful thinking.  They seem reasonable to me, even wonderful. I am not sure what the threat is.  I don’t believe they can take place because of the nature of being human.


What is interesting is the claim of the monument being occult.  What is occult?
Occult
1. of or pertaining to magic, astrology, or any system claiming use or knowledge of secret or supernatural powers or agencies.
2. beyond the range of ordinary knowledge or understanding; mysterious.
3. secret; disclosed or communicated only to the initiated.
4. hidden from view.
5. a. not apparent on mere inspection but discoverable by experimentation.
    b. of a nature not understood, as physical qualities.
    c. dealing with such qualities; experimental: occult science.

At Monte Alban near Oaxaca, Mexico, on a tall mesa is a beautiful structure.  The wall and tiers are oriented to the lie of the mesa.  The stones are positioned so well that you can sight down from one end to the other.  In the middle of the courtyard is another building.  It is oriented astronomically.


http://www.akaworld.net/monte.htm
Is this the occult? 

I am a skeptic.  Show me evidence of actual occult behavior that cannot by explained by natural psychological influences/suggestions.  Is walking on water occult?  Rising from the dead after three days?  Is virgin birth (a myth found in the Near East for 1000 of years before the present believed one)?  Is talking to someone miles away on a little box?
It would seem that one person’s occult is another person’s religious belief.  Or science. 

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A couple of leaving thoughts

After spending so much time trying to make heads of tails of this conspiracy theory stuff, I am curious the psychological history of some of the die-hards.  
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The fear of dissolving nations for a new world order has several reactions from me. There seems to be a belief that the nation state is the natural order of the world.  It would be more reasonable to see it as one step of adjustment along humanities’ path of large populations and high amounts of fossil fuel energy use.  From the gatherer/hunter band to tribes to chiefdoms to city-states to kingships to nations seems to be the unfolding.  This may well be hitting a roadblock. It would take massive amounts of energy and non-fuel minerals to maintain a global order.  Even the wishful wealthy ones are recognizing these limitations via resources.  We are in overshoot as a species, having used the environmental resources to multiply as all life does.  See: Catton, William. 1980.  Overshoot..  University of Illinois Press.  Chicago.
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Through history there seems to be a distribution of wealth and privilege that looks something like:

0.1%             Dynastic Oligarchs
1%               Administrators (in today’s world - CEOs, Presidents, Fed chairman, etc.)
10 to 15%     Functionary Workers (this would be most who are reading this now)
80 to 90%     Peasants  (Wage Slaves in debt-bondage)
[I had presented something like this to one of my mailing lists and it was modified close to what I am presenting by someone on the list.  I did not keep their name.  I thank them.]

If you are reading this you are most likely in the administrator or functionary worker groups. Whatever we think about conspiracies, there have been a goodly number of us that have inadvertently benefited.
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Wanting to frame and influence the world from your point of view seems like a natural inclination.  It is not a new one (Alexander the Great, Ghengis Khan, Ronald Reagan, Lenin, Mao).   If you had the money and power, what would you do?
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Is there stuff going on right now?  Where did the Libyan revolutionaries get their weapons?
Their continual need for ammunition?  Or the present Syrian civil war?  Is there a weapons tree, an ammo garden?  Are there huge monies trying to block science information that goes against beliefs or investments? 
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Are there conspiracies?  Without a doubt.  Nasty ones that enrich and give power to a few, enslave some and kill others. 
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First they came for the communists,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.

    Then they came for the socialists,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a socialist.

    Then they came for the trade unionists,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.

    Then they came for the Jews,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.

    Then they came for the Catholics,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Catholic.

    Then they came for me,
    and there was no one left to speak for me.
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)


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